Jack Niclaus in His Prime using Modern Equipment

From John…

I said I would take a crack at figuring out Jack Nicklaus’ distance with modern equipment after I got back from the PGA show. Here goes. This is longer than I intended, so get some coffee and a sandwich.

John Schiavone

Let’s start with what we know.  According to this article: Jack Nicklaus article from July 21, 1963 , speaking about the Long Drive Competition at the 1963 PGA Championship, Jack states that “I won with a drive of 341 yards, 17 inches (my note: 341.5 yards), while using an old Persimmon-headed driver that was 42 3/4 inches with 11 degrees of loft. Everybody used a wound Titleist golf ball, which they provided each player off the tee so that everyone was hitting the same ball.”  Jack also mentions 110 degree F temperatures, which would increase driving distances.  According to Wikipedia, the long drive contest was held on Wednesday, July 17, 1963.  According to Weather Underground, the high in Dallas, Texas that day was 98 degrees F.  We will use this temperature in our analysis.  Also the altitude of Dallas, Texas ranged from 450 to 550 feet above sea level; we will use 500 feet.

If we had Jack’s driver club head speed, Tutelman’s Simple Formula for Driving Distance would give us a good, but short, estimate of Jack’s “modern” distance.  Tutelman’s article is Simple Formula for Driving Distance.  The formulas are:

Carry Distance = D_c = 3.16*speed – 85.2
Total Distance = D_t = 3.16*speed – 50.5

Why did I say that these formulas would be a short?  Tutelman had to make several assumptions to develop the formulas.  He had good reasons for all the assumptions, and you can read them in the article, but they do end up giving us total distances that are a little short of maximum.  I am not sure of how short, but later I will make a guess.  First, let’s look at the assumptions that affect us and why (my comments are in italics):

• Clubhead speed is a given, it is fixed for this golfer.
• Center contact — this implies two things:  This means we aren’t taking advantage of higher launch/lower spin from above center face contact.
• No gear effect.
• Maximum smash factor, 1.48 for low lofts.  Newer drivers may get closer to 1.50, but I can’t easily change this assumption.
• The 1.48 smash factor is itself based on another assumption: a modern ball and club with the maximum allowed coefficient of restitution of 0.83.
• Square clubface at impact; no sidespin.
• “Flat” attack, angle of attack=0.  This is a big issue that again, I can’t easily fix.  Maximum distance comes from producing the optimum launch angle for your ball speed using the lowest possible loft because that maximizes ball speed (lower loft = higher smash) and minimizes drag by minimizing spin.  For this, you need a positive AoA.  With a zero AoA, you will need more driver loft to get the optimum launch angle which means more spin, more drag, and less distance. 
• The loft at impact is that built into the clubhead. (Other things that can affect loft at impact are shaft bend and wrist cup.)
• Plain vanilla ambient conditions: temperature 80ºF, sea level, no wind, flat fairway, no elevation of tee box, etc.
• A properly fit driver. This is an important assumption! With all the other assumptions, the only fitting variable we have left is loft. The charts (and our study) will best fit the loft to the clubhead speed, consistent with all the other assumptions.
• Formulas are based in maximum carry distance, not total distance.  For maximum total distance, we might give up some carry for a net gain in roll.
• 35 yards of roll.  This is what I am going to change, let me explain below.

The article says this 35 yards of roll is based on Mike Stachura’s data.  The article also says that Trackman data shows PGA roll (dry hard fairways) is about 50 yards.  35 yards is short compared to PGA roll, but may be more correct for the average golfer; however, we are looking for PGA level roll.  But is it really 50 yards?  On Page 97 of “The Science of the Perfect Swing” by Dewhurst, average PGA roll is cited as 40 yards based on Trackman.   We have two references to the same source that have different amounts of roll.  Let’s split the difference, 45 yards, and alter Tutelman’s formula to give us a better PGA level distance.  It will still be a little short because of the other assumptions I’ve listed above, but I think we are really close now.  The adjusted formula is:

PGA Roll Total Distance = D_tPGA = 3.16*speed – 40.5          Remember this, we are going to use it later!

Now we need Jack’s club head speed.  We cannot use Tutelman’s formula to figure out Jack’s 1963 club head speed because Jack used a wooden driver and balata balls while Tutelman’s formula is for the modern ball and titanium driver.  It would be nice if we had a version of Tutelman’s formula for old equipment.  In “The Search for the Perfect Swing” Appendix 1, there are formulas for wooden driver/balata ball carry and total distance.  Tutelman cites them in his article and converted them to our familiar dimensions of mph and yards:

Carry Distance = D_c = 3*speed – 103
Total Distance = D_t = 2.5*speed – 27

These formulas are for the 1.62” diameter British balls, “squarely” struck drives, ball speeds between 102 and 170 mph, and drivers with a CoR of 0.67 which means a maximum smash factor of 1.36.  That limits club head speed to between 75 and 125 mph.  The upper limit of 125 mph is too slow for a 341.5 yard drive, producing only 285.5 yards total distance.   And that’s for the British ball which in Table 26.3  of “The Search for the Perfect Swing” travels about 10 yards further than American 1.68” diameter balls for “Long” drives (which depending on the ball is 250-257 yards carry and 274-287 yards total distance).  So these formulas don’t apply to our problem.

Trying to figure out Jack’s club head speed by ratioing the smash factors of persimmon and titanium drivers is also a dead end because driver launch conditions for old and new equipment are very different.  In “The Science of the Perfect Swing” by Dewhurst, on page 97, there is a reference to a 1976 Bearman and Harvey study stating the average professional drive had a club head speed of 105 mph (calculated based on a CoR of 0.78 and a measured ball speed of 152 mph), a launch angle of 6.1 degrees, and a spin rate of 3450 rpm.  Compare that to 2014 PGA averages from Trackman where club head speed is 113 mph, launch angle is 10.9 degrees, and spin rate is 2686 rpm.  The wound balata ball spun more than the modern urethane ball and so required different launch conditions to maximize distance.  We have to take that into consideration in order to calculate Jack’s club head speed. (Note: The citation for a CoR of 0.78 doesn’t state that that is for wood specifically, but since it predates TM’s introduction of steel head drivers in 1979, it seems to me that it would be wood.)

We can use the information from this 1976 study to take a guess at Jack’s launch conditions.  But we have to make some assumptions.  We assume the average driver loft was 11 degrees, just like Jack’s.  We know that club head speed does not affect launch angle (I forget the citation, but it’s physics), so we can assume that Jack’s launch angle was about 6.1 degrees.  We know that club head speed does affect spin rates, and we now know that Jack’s club head speed was more than the 105 mph average (because we know it was more than 125 mph from our examination of British distances above), so his spin rate was probably above the 3450 rpm average.  But I don’t have any information on how much above 3450 rpm, so let’s assume it doesn’t change.  This will affect our final answer, but we can explore this later.

Since we now have launch angle and spin, we can use Tutelman’s Trajectoware Drive program to calculate club head speed.  This is the same program Tutelman used to create his formulas for driving distance.  Not only is it good, but it allows you to change many input factors including driver head CoR.  However, Trajectoware computes carry, not total distance.  As mentioned earlier, we are going to assume 45 yards of roll.  This would put Jack’s carry distance at 341.5 -45 = 296.5 yards.  We will make two adjustments to the program’s defaults.  One for the temperature; we will use Jack’s quote of 110 degrees F (but we will also consider 80 degrees F).  The other for the CoR of the driver.  But there is a small issue here.  The previously mentioned study by Bearman and Harvey says it is 0.78.  But in “The Search for the Perfect Swing” Appendix 1, it says CoR is 0.67.  This is a relatively large difference and I don’t know who is right.  We will use both and compare answers. 

Inputs to Trajectoware (if not listed, use program defaults):

• Club head CoR = 0.78 and 0.67
• Launch Angle = 6.1 degrees
• Back Spin = 3450 rpm
• Temperature 98 degrees F
• Altitude 500 feet above sea level

Now we will vary ball velocity until Carry Distance = 296.5 yards and read the calculated club head speed.  The following chart shows Jack’s club head speeds in mph for the variations in CoR and temperature:

CoR	0.78	0.67
Estimated club head speed	125.9	133.9

I read in Jack Niclaus Surprising Fast Swing Speed that Jack’s club head speed was measured in 1998 at 58 years old to be 118 mph.  So these numbers seem reasonable for  Jack in his prime.  Looking at the 2019 Shotlink Statistics from PGA Tour Statistics Club Head Speed , and looking at only the “Fastest Speed” column, Jack’s lowest possible speed would put him in the top 20 and his fastest would put him at number 2.  Wherever he would have fallen, it is a believable club head speed by modern standards.

Before I calculate the distances, I want you to remember that this is Jack’s club head speed with “an old Persimmon-headed driver that was 42 3/4 inches” long and shafted with steel.  It was shorter and probably 40 grams  or more heavier than modern drivers.  This raises the question of whether Jack would swing a modern driver faster.  Jack counter-weighted his old driver and probably would have done the same for a modern driver.  How much this would have affected his speed, I don’t know.  Later I will take a guess.

Now we have a range for Jack’s club head speed: 125.9 to 133.9 mph.

Using my modified version of Tutelman’s formula and recalling that this is for 80 degrees F and Sea Level altitude:

D_tPGA = 3.16*125.9 – 40.5 = 357.3 yards

or

D_tPGA = 3.16*133.9 – 40.5 = 382.6 yards

Depending on which CoR, with modern gear Jack would hit a ball between 357 and 383 yards.

Now, let’s revisit the items I indicated need some examination:

1. How short is Tutelman’s formula for maximum total distance versus maximum carry distance?
2. What is the effect of a higher spin rate on Jack’s club head speed and distance?
3. Could Jack swing a modern driver faster than his wooden head, steel shaft driver?

To answer the first question, I have previously stated that we need to examine the following items:

1. The smash factor limit of 1.48 vs. 1.50
2. 35 yards roll vs. PGA level roll
3. The formula is optimized for maximum carry vs. maximum total distance
4. The advantage of above center contact vs. the assumed center contact
5. The advantage of a positive AoA over a zero AoA

Smash factor is actually easy to address.  Let’s start with the fact that you really can’t do better than 1.48.  Look at any chart for PGA and LPGA driver launch data.  The average smash factors are 1.48.  Because of driver loft, 1.50 is just not realistic.  I am going to discount this from improving Jack’s distance.  But for those of you who are still interested, let’s assume we can actually get to 1.5.  That would be an increase in smash factor of 0.02.  Using Jack’s fasted swing speed of 133.9, that would mean an increase in Ball Speed of 0.02 x 133.9 = 2.7 mph.  Using the ball speed version of Tutelman’s formula for distance, the change in distance is 2.14 x change in ball speed.  In our case this is 2.14 x 2.7 = 5.8 yards.  So if you believe you can realistically get a smash factor of 1.50, go ahead and add 5.8 yards to Jack’s distance.  My answer will not include it.

We have already addressed the 35 yards of roll issue by using 45 yards of roll based on Trackman data.  That also addresses the issue of the formula being optimized for maximum carry vs. maximum total distance.  We have the best of both worlds since we are using both maximum carry and PGA level roll and have probably created an optimistic estimate of distance by doing so.

As for the last two items, Tutelman himself actually addresses some of the shortcomings of his formula in an associated article: How Much Distance are You Leaving Out There?  “How Much Distance are You Leaving Out There?”.  If you have not read this yet, please do so.  It is a great article for determining how much a golfer can get from a good driver fitting.  In it Tutelman addresses both above center impact and positive AoA.  Let me recap them here.

• Raising the impact position on the face by ½” will increase distance by 6 yards for a golfer with an 86 mph club head speed.  We could probably expect more from golfers with higher club head speeds, but I am not sure about how much more in Jack’s case.
• Increasing your AoA increases launch angle with no change in spin.  Tutelman says it’s worth about 4 yards with an 86 mph club head speed and again I would bet more with a higher club head speed.

So we might be able to add 10 yards to our calculated distances.  But to do so, we are assuming that Jack would make these changes to his swing and is that a reasonable assumption?  For example, most PGA players have a negative angle of attack with their driver.  What did Jack have?  I don’t know.  Could he learn to make these two changes, I would bet yes.  I am going to say that if Jack were using modern equipment, and competing in a long drive event, he would probably use these techniques, so we are going to add 10 yards to our calculations.

For the second question, the potential effect of spin on determining Jack’s club head speed, referring to Figure 4J on page 112 of “The Science of the Perfect Swing” by Dewhurst shows that for a PGA driver with a fixed spin loft of about 14 degrees, spin is generated at about 23 rpm per mph of club head speed.  This is for modern equipment and I am unsure of how wooden heads and balata balls would change the numbers, but it is better than no estimates.  Jack’s fastest potential club head speed is only 30 mph above the average of 105 mph I earlier mentioned.  That would mean his spin rate might be 30 x 23 or 690 rpm above the average of 3450 rpm we assumed or 4140 rpm.  Trajectoware shows this higher spin rate would raise Jack’s swing speed by 2.2 mph.  From Tutelman’s formula, this would potentially add 3.16 x 2.2 = 7.0 yards to Jack’s distances.  I think this is reasonable assumption to make so I am going to add this distance to our estimates.

The third question: Could Jack swing a modern driver faster than his wooden head, steel shaft driver?, is difficult to answer without real scientific studies because it depends so much on the individual.  There are two factors to consider: lighter weight and longer length.  Jack back weighted his clubs including his driver.  I can only assume he would have done so with modern equipment.  This would probably have reduced the weight advantage.  Longer clubs can only generate more club head speed if you can keep the same angular velocity (degrees per second).  But longer clubs could have significantly higher MOIs and so require more strength to generate the same angular velocity.  If we assume that Jack’s new driver was 44.5” (PGA average length) and allowed min to maintain his angular velocity, he would gain 44.5/42.75 = 1.04 or 4% clubhead speed; which would be 5-6 mph.  I can’t recall where, but I saw an article comparing driver club head speeds of an old wooden head, steel shaft driver to modern graphite shafted drivers.  The lighter weight and longer length of modern drivers created an 8 mph increase in swing speed on average.  This was not a scientific study, but the number is in the same ball park as my estimate based on change in length.  Eight mph would amount to a 25 yards gain in distance.  However, I think that I do not have enough evidence to support adjusting Jack’s swing speed for the modern driver.  I have no idea of what his new driver specifications would be and so I think it unwise to make any adjustment.

Let’s summarize the distance adjustments:

1. For Tutelman’s formula add 10 yards
2. For a higher spin rate add 7 yards
3. For modern driver weight and length – no adjustment

Out total adjustment is 17 yards.  That brings us to our final answers:

Depending on which CoR, with modern gear Jack would hit a ball between 374 and 400 yards.

Remember that Jack was competing in a long drive competition.  Comparing these distances to other long drive competitions in this article: World Long Drive Championshipdia shows that while the distances are quite believable, Jack probably would not have won any recent true long drive events although he would have been a serious competitor. 

As a sanity check, let’s look at the recently released USGA and R&A  Joint Distance Insights Report.  It reports that between 1980 and 2019 PGA driving distances increased 40 yards.  The first 30 yards of the increase is equipment and ball related and occurred from 1980 to 2004.  The last 10 yards increase occurred during a period of “Stability through regulation” beginning in 2004, so where did it come from?  My guess is that players are becoming more fit, engaging in strength training, and benefitting from training with launch monitors, high speed photography, motion tracking systems and other high tech systems, but that is only my opinion.  The first metal driver was introduced in 1979 and the first modern ball (the Pro V1) in 2000.  So the 1980 – 2019 increases include all the modern equipment changes.  We can guess that Jack would also get about 40 more yards, so his “modern” distance would be 341.5 + 40 = 381.5 yards; more in line with distances based on a CoR of 0.78 than 0.67.

By my good friend and fellow clubfitter in Staten Island. If you are in the New York area look him up, give him a call, or email him for a great set of clubs.

John M. Schiavone – AGCP Level 10 Qualified & Certified
Rocket Science Golf, LLC
Phone: 718-614-6457
Email: RocketScienceGolf@verizon.net

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